Coronavirus unemployment at nearly 15% is still shy of the record high reached during the Great Depression

Business closures across the U.S. have caused job losses to spike. AP Photo/Paul Sancya

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The from 4.4% in March to a roughly 90-year high of 14.7% in April.

But could the rate, as , surpass the record 25% joblessness the U.S. experienced at the peak of the Great Depression?

As a who has tracked the labor force for decades, I’ve been wondering about this myself.

There are actually two figures the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses to estimate employment levels in the U.S.

One is the unemployment rate, which comes from the Current Population Survey. The U.S. Census Bureau contacts about every month to get an estimate of this rate.

The other is an estimate of how many nonfarm jobs were lost or created in the month. The Bureau of Labor Statistics creates these figures by asking more than , nonprofits and various state and local governments how many people were on their payroll at any time during the week containing the 12th of the month.

The latest data show the economy lost a staggering 20.5 million jobs in April.

The employment surveys — single-week snapshots — were both taken in mid-April. And , which means the unemployment rate could still go higher.

In addition, the Bureau of Labor Statistics considers even if they worked only part of that week. Starting off the week employed and ending the week laid off means a person is still considered “working.”

It’s likely we still haven’t seen the full scale of the pandemic’s impact.

The record unemployment rate came in 1933, when a who wanted to work couldn’t find a job.

Back then, the U.S. only estimated annual labor market data. More precise monthly data . Since then, the highest monthly unemployment rate ever recorded was as a result of the to fight inflation.

If unemployment in the U.S. does reach 25%, the country would hardly be alone in the world. In fact, before the pandemic, 22 countries including South Africa and Kenya were over 25%, according to the CIA, which tracks data like this because high unemployment sometimes lead to social instability and government collapse.

With governments on bailout and stimulus programs aimed at mitigating the pandemic’s impact on the economy, it’s impossible to really know how high joblessness will get. These efforts may prevent the worst.

In my view, however, I do believe that no matter what, the crisis will be short-lived. The economy will rebound when life — and our pent-up desire to eat out, shop and spend — returns to normal, eventually.

For additional commentary by Boston University experts, follow us on Twitter at . Follow Questrom School of Business on Twitter at .

This is a revised version of an on April 3, 2020.

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